
In the week ending March 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 190,000. The 4-week moving average was 197,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 193,000. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending Feb. 25, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 25 was 1,718,000, an increase of 69,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 6,000 from 1,655,000 to 1,649,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,679,500, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,500 from 1,671,500 to 1,670,000.
TrueCar released the latest version of its Automotive Shopper Trends Report, a comprehensive look into auto shopper actions and expectations.
The report shows that although new-car inventory is returning, high interest rates continue to add to affordability challenges and influence how consumers approach car buying. Below are some insights from this edition of the ASTR:
Additionally, the report found that 95% of shoppers want to do at least some part of their deal online, revealing a new persona: the omnichannel shopper, a consumer looking to do any amount of their car purchase online, before going into the dealership. These shoppers have a variety of traits that define their shopping experience, including:
“Car buyers and their expectations have changed over the past few years as the automotive industry continues to shift, especially with the move toward online marketplaces,” said Mike Darrow, president and CEO at TrueCar.
For the second consecutive year, more than 1 billion units of food, drugs, medical devices, automobiles, and consumer products were recalled in the U.S. According to Sedgwick’s latest state of the nation recall index report, 2022 was a record-breaking year for the number of units recalled, reaching nearly 1.5 billion.
With regulatory scrutiny continuing to increase, 2023 may shape up to be another 1 billion unit year, requiring businesses across industries to remain vigilant on matters of product safety and recall preparedness.
2022 recall data highlights:
What’s ahead in 2023:
“The year ahead will likely be characterized by the same strict regulatory enforcement that all industries saw in 2022,” shared Chris Harvey, Sedgwick senior vice president of brand protection. “Regulators have now fully returned to pre-pandemic levels of activity and are making up for lost time with a steady slate of long awaited guidelines and modernizations to existing regulations. Businesses will face the tough challenge of remaining agile with their operations to accommodate new regulations, while simultaneously anticipating and preparing for potential economic and geopolitical issues.”
Automakers with the most Recalls in 2022:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in February for the second consecutive month. The Index now stands at 102.9 (1985=100), down from 106.0 in January (a downward revision). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 152.8 (1985=100) from 151.1 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell further to 69.7 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 76.0 in January. Notably, the Expectations Index has now fallen well below 80—the level which often signals a recession within the next year. It has been below this level for 11 of the last 12 months.
“Consumer confidence declined again in February. The decrease reflected large drops in confidence for households aged 35 to 54 and for households earning $35,000 or more,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director, economics at The Conference Board.
“While consumers’ view of current business conditions worsened in February, the Present Situation Index still ticked up slightly based on a more favorable view of the availability of jobs. In fact, the proportion of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ climbed to 52.0 percent—back to levels seen in the spring of last year. However, the outlook appears considerably more pessimistic when looking ahead. Expectations for where jobs, incomes, and business conditions are headed over the next six months all fell sharply in February.
“And, while 12-month inflation expectations improved—falling to 6.3 percent from 6.7 percent last month—consumers may be showing early signs of pulling back spending in the face of high prices and rising interest rates. Fewer consumers are planning to purchase homes or autos and they also appear to be scaling back plans to buy major appliances. Vacation intentions also declined in February.”
Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions worsened slightly in February.
Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was more favorable.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers became more pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in February.
Consumers were less upbeat about the short-term labor market outlook.
Consumers’ short-term income prospects became considerably less upbeat.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a tech company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers.
From the preceding month, the personal consumption expenditures price index for January increased 0.6 percent, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Prices for goods and services both increased 0.6 percent as well. Food prices increased 0.4 percent and energy prices increased 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.6 percent.
Personal income increased $131.1 billion (0.6 percent) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $387.4 billion (2.0 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $312.5 billion (1.8 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent in January. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.6 percent. Real DPI increased 1.4 percent and Real PCE increased 1.1 percent; goods increased 2.2 percent and services increased 0.6 percent.
The increase in current-dollar personal income in January was led by an increase in compensation, reflecting private wages and salaries in both services-producing industries and goods-producing industries. Government social benefits decreased in January, reflecting a decrease in “other” benefits that was partly offset by an increase in Social Security. The decrease in “other” benefits primarily reflected the expiration of the extended child tax credit (as authorized by the American Rescue Plan) as well as a decline in one-time refundable tax credits issued by states. The increase in Social Security primarily reflected an 8.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment. The $312.5 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in January reflected increases of $162.2 billion in spending for goods and $150.2 billion in spending for services. Within goods, the increase was widespread and led by motor vehicles and parts as well as “other” nondurable goods (led by pharmaceuticals). Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for food services.
General Motors' Chevrolet division has idled its Corvette assembly plant in Bowling Green, Kentucky due to a continuing parts shortage. GM stated “the parts shortage is not due to a semiconductor chip issue” though they failed to say what parts were in short supply. The plant employs over 1,300 people and plans to resume production on Monday, February 27th.
The last time the plant was idled was in October 2022, for a week. Production of Corvette Stingrays and the Corvette Z06 , the vehicles produced in Bowling Green have suffered quite a few setbacks in recent years, due to Covid shutdowns and parts issues.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a report examining trends in credit reporting of debt in collections from 2018 to 2022. The report found the total number of collection tradelines on credit reports declined by 33%, from 261 million tradelines in 2018 to 175 million tradelines in 2022. The share of consumers with a collection tradeline on their credit report decreased by 20% in the same timeframe. The CFPB also today released additional analysis examining factors that increase the likelihood of inaccurate medical collections reporting and may contribute to the decline in medical collections tradelines.
“Our analysis of credit reports provides yet another indicator that, due to a strong labor market and emergency programs during the pandemic, household financial distress reduced over the last two years,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “However, false and inaccurate medical debt on credit reports continues to be a drag on household financial health.”
Collections tradelines are furnished to credit reporting companies by third-party debt collectors. Commonly reported collection items include medical, rental and leasing, credit card, and utility accounts. Some third-party collectors work on behalf of original creditors for a fee (“contingency-fee-based debt collectors”) and others purchase accounts outright from creditors (“debt buyers”).
Unlike most other tradelines, debt collection tradelines rarely report positive information like on-time payments, and result in reporting of collections tradelines being almost entirely harmful to consumers. Collections tradelines are visible to potential lenders, employers, landlords, and others who run credit inquiries or background checks. Collections tradelines can limit people’s access to jobs and housing, as well as decrease credit scores and increase the cost of credit. Given the potential damaging impacts of collections tradelines, reporting of inaccurate data is especially harmful.
The recent report is drawn from the CFPB’s Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of approximately 5 million de-identified credit records maintained by one of the three nationwide credit reporting companies.
Key findings of this report include:
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.2 percent in December 2022 and advanced 0.3 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended January 2023. In January, a 1.2-percent rise in prices for final demand goods led the advance in the final demand index. Prices for final demand services also moved higher, increasing 0.4 percent.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.6 percent in January 2023, the largest advance since moving up 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in January 2023, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 4.5 percent.
Job openings rates increased in 10 states and the District of Columbia and decreased in 1 state on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Feb. 15. Hires rates increased in four states. Total separations rates increased in seven states and decreased in six states.
Nationally, the job openings rate increased in December while the hires and total separations rates showed little or no change.
The release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, total separations, quits, and layoffs and discharges for the total nonfarm sector and for all states and the District of Columbia.
In December, job openings rates were little changed in 39 states. The largest increases in job openings rates occurred in North Dakota (+1.6 percentage points), as well as in Michigan and Minnesota (+1.3 points each). The decrease occurred in Georgia (-0.6 point). Over the month, the national job openings rate increased (+0.3 point).
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Feb. 14.
Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for food, gasoline, and natural gas also contributing. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent. The energy index increased 2.0 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes rose over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in January. Categories which increased in January include the shelter, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, apparel, and household furnishings and operations indexes. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, and airline fares were among those that decreased over the month.
The all items index increased 6.4 percent for the 12 months ending January; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending October 2021. The all
items less food and energy index rose 5.6 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month increase since December 2021. The energy index increased 8.7 percent for the 12 months ending January, and the food index increased 10.1percent over the last year.
A University of Michigan survey reported consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged at 1.5 index points above January, according to Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
Recent developments in the economy, both positive and negative, have led to mixed attitudes among consumers, but with little net change in February.
After three consecutive months of increases, sentiment is now 6% above a year ago but still 14% below two years ago, prior to the current inflation problem.
Overall, high prices continue to weigh on consumers despite the recent moderation in inflation, and sentiment remains more than 22% below its historical average since 1978. Combined with concerns over rising unemployment on the horizon, consumers are poised to exercise greater caution with their spending in the months ahead.
Year-ahead inflation expectations rebounded to 4.2% this month, from 3.9% in January and 4.4% in December. Long-run inflation expectations remained at 2.9% for the third straight month and stayed within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 18 of the last 19 months.
Uncertainty over short-run inflation expectations ticked up recently and continues to be notably elevated (see chart, black solid line), indicating the potential for continued volatility in expected year-ahead inflation. In contrast, uncertainty over long-run inflation receded in recent months, though the uncertainty stands well above averages over the last 20 years (red dotted line).
In the week ending Feb. 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 196,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 183,000. The 4-week moving average was 189,250, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 191,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending January 28, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 28 was 1,688,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 5,000 from 1,655,000 to 1,650,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,664,750, an increase of 14,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,250 from 1,651,500 to 1,650,250.
Manheim estimates that used retail sales increased 16% in January from December and that used retail sales were up 5% year over year, based on leveraging a same-store set of dealerships selected to represent the country from Dealertrack.
Using estimates of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, January ended at 44 days’ supply, down from 56 days at the end of December and six days lower than how January 2022 ended at 50 days.
Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data, wholesale supply is estimated to have ended January at 26 days, down six days from the end of December and down five days from how January 2022 ended at 31 days.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Jan. 3.
Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.
Both the unemployment rate, at 3.4 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 5.7 million, changed little in January. The unemployment rate has shown little net movement since early 2022.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.2 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), teenagers (10.3 percent), Whites (3.1 percent), Blacks (5.4 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.5 percent) showed little change in January.
The number of persons jobless less than five weeks decreased to 1.9 million in January. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.1 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.4 percent of the total unemployed in January.
In January, both the labor force participation rate, at 62.4 percent, and the employment population ratio, at 60.2 percent, were unchanged after removing the effects of the annual adjustments to the population controls. These measures have shown little net change since early 2022 and remain below their pre-pandemic February 2020 levels (63.3 percent and 61.1 percent, respectively).