The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading national poll on consumer confidence, revealed that consumer confidence has slipped to neutral. November’s Economic Optimism Index declined by 9.4% overall, putting it right at 50.0. For the IBD/TIPP indexes, a reading above 50 signals optimism and below 50.0 indicates pessimism. The index was in a strong position leading into November, thanks to its significant rise (22.7%) in October.

IBD/TIPP surveyed 1,324 adults from November 4 to November 6. Due to COVID-19, the poll was conducted online using TechnoMetrica’s network of online panels to provide the sample.

Financial stress increased by 2.6% in November. The Financial Related Stress Index moved from 65.0 last month to 66.7 this month. The reading continues to keep the index above 50.0. A reading over 50.0 equals more financial stress while a reading below 50.0 would indicate consumers feel less stress. This index has been above 50.0 since March.

NFIB’s Small-Business Optimism Index declined 0.8 points in October to 91.3, which is the 10th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98.

Thirty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, three points higher than September’s numbers and four points lower than July’s highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1979.

“Owners continue to show a dismal view about future sales growth and business conditions, but are still looking to hire new workers,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages continue to limit the ability of many small businesses to meet the demand for their products and services.”

Key findings include:

• Of the 10 Index components, two increased, seven declined, and one was unchanged.
• Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months deteriorated two points from September to a net negative 46%.
• The net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased one point to a net 50% (seasonally adjusted). Half of all firms are raising prices, that’s inflation.
• The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher decreased three points from September to a net negative 13%.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 46% of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, unchanged from September. Of those hiring or trying to hire, 90% of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill.

Fifty-four percent of owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down two points from September. Of those making expenditures, 37% reported spending on new equipment, 22% acquired vehicles, and 17% improved or expanded facilities.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index declined in October to 119.57, down from an upwardly revised 120.73 in September 2022. The ETI is a leading composite index for employment.

When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI decreased in October 2022 and has been flat since early 2022, but it remains at a high level and a clear turning point in the Index is not yet visible,” said Frank Steemers, senior economist at The Conference Board.

“Therefore, job growth will likely continue over the next months, albeit at a slowing pace. Indeed, the labor market remains resilient with job gains still strong, but the Fed’s rapid monetary policy tightening is expected to have a more visibly negative impact on the pace of hiring by early 2023.

 “Until that happens, employers will have to deal with continued labor shortages. While there are signs these shortages have begun easing somewhat, hiring and retention difficulties are not over. A tight U.S. labor market, understaffing, limited recovery in labor force participation, and an aging workforce all suggest U.S. labor supply will remain a challenge for companies. As a result, employers may be more careful in laying off workers.

“Currently, we expect the U.S. economy to enter recession around yearend 2022, with the unemployment rate to rise to around 4.5 percent in 2023—roughly one percentage point higher than today, but still quite low compared to past downturns.”

Federal, state, and local law enforcement partners executed a nationwide takedown of leaders and associates of a network of thieves, dealers, and processors for their roles in stolen catalytic converters sold to a metal refinery for tens of millions of dollars.

Arrests, searches, and seizures took place in California, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. In total, 21 individuals in five states have been arrested and/or charged for their roles in the conspiracy.

The 21 defendants are charged in two separate indictments that were unsealed today in the Eastern District of California and the Northern District of Oklahoma following extensive law enforcement arrest and search operations. In addition to the indictments, over 32 search warrants were executed, and law enforcement seized millions of dollars in assets, including homes, bank accounts, cash, and luxury vehicles.

“Amidst a rise in catalytic converter thefts across the country, the Justice Department has today carried out an operation arresting 21 defendants and executing 32 search warrants in a nation-wide takedown of a multimillion-dollar catalytic converter theft network,” said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. “We will continue to work alongside our state and local partners to disrupt criminal conspiracies like this one that target the American people.”

“This national network of criminals hurt victims across the country,” said FBI Director Christopher Wray. “They made hundreds of millions of dollars in the process—on the backs of thousands of innocent car owners.”