Likely motivated by concerns about tariffs and future higher prices, new-vehicle shoppers were out in force early in April and, according to the Cox Automotive forecast, helped keep the new-vehicle sales pace relatively strong, although down from March’s surprising market surge.

The April seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is forecasted by Cox Automotive to reach approximately 16.4 million. This result would be higher than April 2024’s 16 million pace and the best April since 2021. However, the sales pace in April is forecast to be far lower than March’s 17.8 million level, as the second half of the month showed signs of cooling after a very fast start. New-vehicle sales volume is expected to be higher by 4.6% year over year but lower by 12% from March’s total. April has 26 selling days, the same as last month and one more than last year.

“Forecasting sales in this volatile market is quite challenging, and that is what we have right now, a market being steered by headlines coming from the White House,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “Concerns about potential future vehicle prices due to tariffs led to a surge in March sales, and April began with similar robustness. However, inventory levels have declined substantially over recent weeks, likely pushing vehicle prices higher, so the end of April may not be as strong. With economic concerns rising and consumer confidence declining, the outlook for new auto sales from here is more troubling. If current policy holds, prices in the new-vehicle market will be noticeably higher in the coming months as more costly products replace pre-tariff inventory.”

According to Cox Automotive’s vAuto Live Market View, new-vehicle inventory across the U.S. at the start of March was nearly 3 million units, with a measured days’ supply at 89. By the beginning of April, inventory had declined to 2.7 million units, and days’ supply was at 70, thanks partly to the hotter sales pace. And new-vehicle inventory continued to slip through early April, with days’ supply falling to near 60 at a mid-month measure. The official April inventory level will be released in the first part of May.