Projected Strong Start for New-Car Sales

By Staff Writer January 26, 2025 447

Total new-vehicle sales for January 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,105,900, a 4.4% increase from January 2024, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. January 2025 has 25 selling days, the same as January 2024.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.6 million units, up 0.6 million units from January 2024.

New-vehicle retail sales for January 2025 are expected to increase from a year ago. Retail sales of new vehicles are expected to reach 904,200, a 4.8% increase from January 2024.

“January’s SAAR forecast of 15.6 million is up 0.6 million from last January, however, it is considerably lower than December’s 17.1 million SAAR,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “While the decline from the December sales pace is notable, it is important to recognize that January is typically the lowest sales volume month of the year. As such, the January sales pace is generally not indicative of the long-term outlook for the industry.

“December’s strong sales pace was fueled by manufacturer incentives aimed at clearing 2024 model-year inventory. Additionally, speculation on changes to the availability of government rebates for electric vehicles encouraged many EV purchases that would otherwise have occurred at some point in 2025. In combination, these factors explain the relative strength of December and relative softness of the sales pace in January.

“Nevertheless, consumers will spend more money buying new vehicles this January than any other January on record. This notable result shows that retail sales are rising while average transaction prices are declining only modestly.”

The average retail transaction price for new vehicles is trending toward $44,636, down $238 (0.5%) from January 2024. The combination means that buyers are on track to spend nearly $38.5 billion on new vehicles this month—5.3% higher than January 2024, and the highest January on record.

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Last modified on Thursday, 30 January 2025 11:22