Cox Automotive Sees ‘Positive Momentum’

By Staff Writer October 30, 2024

Retail vehicle sales show resilience, with new sales up 10% year over year and used vehicle sales improving 9% against 2023, despite recent disruptions, according to Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report.

Cox Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke reported that supply in the vehicle market has stabilized, with new supply holding strong year over year while used supply remains more constrained, impacting price trends.

The average growth in consumer spending has been stabilizing over the 4% mark.

“The consumer is spending enough to keep the economy growing,” Smoke said.

Unemployment claims are now reflecting the impact of hurricanes and the Boeing strike.

More than 3 million new jobs were created last year, and 1.8 million have been created through September this year.

Despite the storms, the most accurate measure of consumer sentiment continues trending higher and is at the highest level since spring of 2021.

The index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult improved modestly in June, July, August, and September and is up again in October. The index increased 0.2% week over week as of Oct. 28, leaving it up 4.4% year to date and up 1.4% so far in October after increasing 1.4% in September,” Smoke said.

“Gas prices are on the decline again as the average unleaded gas price, according to AAA, declined 1.4% week over week to $3.13 per gallon as of Sunday, Oct. 27, which was down 10% year over year and down 2.3%, so far in October,” Smoke said.

Sales are currently 4% higher in the used retail vehicle market, with estimated sales increasing by 1% in the most recent week of data and up 9% against 2023, according to vAuto.

Supply metrics have stabilized with recent declines.

The 3YO Weekly Retail Price declined again this past week, falling by two-tenths of a point for the third week in a row, allowing wholesale prices to converge a bit more with retail values, added Smoke.

There was a 0.2% decline in the average MY 2021 retail price last week, while wholesale prices fell by 0.5%.

Wholesale prices are 2.7% higher than last year for the week, and values for 3YO units in 2024 are now down 9.7% since week 1.

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Last modified on Wednesday, 30 October 2024 20:19