Total new-vehicle sales for September 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,164,900, a 1.8% decrease from September 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to last week’s joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. September 2024 has 23 selling days, three fewer than September 2023. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to a decrease of 13.2% from 2023.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.8 million units, flat from September 2023.

New-vehicle retail sales in Q3 2024 are projected to reach 3,263,500 units, a 1.4% increase from Q3 2023 with two less selling days.

“Retail inventory is projected to be 1.8 million units, a 6.2% increase from August and a 30.7% increase from September 2023,” Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “Rising inventories are leading to larger discounts from both manufacturers and retailers. However, the inventory situation continues to be inconsistent across brands and models, with some popular vehicles remaining in short supply.”

The average new-vehicle retail transaction price has fallen from a year ago due to higher manufacturer incentives, larger retailer discounts and increased availability of lower-priced vehicles. Transaction prices are trending towards $44,467—down $1,296 or 2.8%—from September 2023. The combination of lower retail sales and lower transaction prices means that buyers are on track to spend nearly $40.4 billion on new vehicles this month—16.8% lower than September 2023.

“Total retailer profit per unit—which includes vehicles gross plus finance and insurance income—is expected to be $2,294, down 29% from September 2023. Rising inventory is the primary factor behind the profit decline and fewer vehicles are selling above the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP). Thus far, only 13.6% of new vehicles have been sold above MSRP, which is down from 26.1% in September 2023.”

Total aggregate retailer profit from new-vehicle sales for this month is projected to be $2.1 billion, down 39% from September 2023.

“Increased inventory means fewer vehicles are being pre-sold by retailers, with more shoppers able to buy directly off dealer lots. J.D. Power forecasts that 32.4% of vehicles will sell within 10 days of arriving at the dealership, down from a peak of 58% in March 2022. The average time a new vehicle remains in the dealer's possession before sale is expected to be 48 days, up from 29 days a year ago.”