New-vehicle sales in September are expected to tumble more than 16% from August and 11% from last September, according to Cox Automotive. Still, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to rise to 15.9 million, up from August’s 15.1 million level and slightly higher than last September’s 15.8 million pace.

According to a, senior economist at Cox Automotive: “The September sales pace is expected to improve from a rather slow August, maintaining the trend of large swings we’ve witnessed this year. With the election season fully upon us, more volatility seems likely through the end of the year. However, the recent interest rate cut will help household finances, and automakers are being more aggressive with discounts, so we remain optimistic that new-vehicle sales could improve marginally through the final quarter of 2024.”  

The September new-vehicle sales data will be influenced heavily by the large differences in the number of selling days. There are only 23 selling days this September, five fewer than August’s 28 days and three fewer than last September. Significant statistical adjustments help make comparisons more accurate, but they are still challenging.

September 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

Healthy new-vehicle inventory and higher incentives are helping maintain sales. New-vehicle sales incentives have been increasing through 2024, with August incentives estimated by Kelley Blue Book to be at the highest level since the first half of 2021. New-vehicle transaction prices have also been under pressure, helping improve new-vehicle affordability. Both dynamics – higher incentive and continued price pressure – are expected to positively influence September’s sales volume.

While the overall new-vehicle market is forecast to be slightly higher year over year at the end of Q3, the gains have mostly been on the fleet and leasing sides of the business. Retail purchases year-to-date in 2024 – vehicles bought with cash or via an auto loan and representing nearly 60% of all sales – are forecast to be lower by 4% compared to 2023. Fleet sales year to date in 2024 are tracking higher by about 7% year over year, while leasing is higher by 24%, thanks in large part to strong electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid lease offers.