The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased in August to 109.04 amid a downtrend in the index, and following July’s downwardly revised 108.71. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI rose in August, recording just its second monthly gain of 2024,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board. “In the context of labor market data that is broadly softening, the improvement in the ETI is a positive indication that the pace of labor market slowdown remains sustainable ahead of September’s Fed meeting, where we expect the interest rate cutting cycle to begin. Though some ETI components have weakened, August’s gains puts the index back above the level it averaged in 2019—which at the time was considered a historically hot labor market.”

Barnes added: “August’s bounce in ETI coincided with last week’s positive Employment Situation Report for August, which showed payrolls expanding at a healthy pace, unemployment ticking back down, and no signs are emerging that could accelerate the gradual slowing into deterioration.” Supporting that story, initial claims for unemployment insurance (an ETI component) have fallen marginally in recent weeks and are not signaling sizable layoffs. Employment in temporary help services (an ETI component) was flat. Neither average weekly hours nor the share of involuntary part-time workers (another ETI component) collapsed. Meanwhile, metrics of household spending and production have remained strong.

That said, the overall steady decline of the ETI since peaking in 2022 is consistent with a collection of measures that point to increasing challenges for jobseekers not already employed.