Cloud Theory, the real-time automotive data insights provider for automotive manufacturers, agencies, and affiliates, is reporting in August’s On The Horizon that new-vehicle inventory ticked down slightly to 2.92 million, a decline of 0.02 million from the prior month. This is the first pullback—other than seasonal drops from December to January—to have occurred in two years.

Diagnostic numbers also point to a range-bound demand picture, with turn rates perpetuating a trend that has generally been in the mid-to-high 30s for the past seven months. Average marketed pricing has stayed steady for three months running, but market adjustments—which measure the discounts and incentives visible to consumers—continue to increase.

“Our numbers have been pointing to a slowdown in supply growth, and it was inevitable that the industry would eventually reach a ceiling,” said Rick Wainschel, vice president of data science & analytics at Cloud Theory. “We had been slowly marching toward a three million count, and it looks like we are going to land very close to that number.”

Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dominate this month’s Inventory Efficiency Index, with Toyota and Lexus in the top two slots (and leading every segment in which they compete). Honda Motor Company, with Honda at #3 and Acura at #6, also continues to fare well. And General Motors, with three brands in the top 10 (and Cadillac at #12), remains strong on this metric. It is noteworthy that those three manufacturers have significantly reduced their inventory counts when compared to pre-pandemic levels.