Total new-vehicle sales for July 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,340,500, a 2.8% increase from July 2023, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. July 2024 has 25 selling days, the same as July 2023.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.7 million units, up 0.7 million units from July 2023 and the highest in more than three years.

New-vehicle retail sales for July 2024 are expected to increase from a year ago. Retail sales of new vehicles are expected to reach 1,135,300, a 5% increase from July 2023.

“While the top line sales results are impressive, they are being inflated by sales that would have otherwise occurred in June,” Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.  “The delay occurred because of the software outages in June that limited many dealers’ ability to process transactions, thus affecting the June sales pace.

“The July sales pace would be stronger still were it not for a combination of factors that are affecting consumer demand. While discounts from dealers and OEMs grew in July from June, the increases were slightly smaller than is typical, since July is historically when manufacturers start to elevate discounts on prior model-year vehicles.

“In addition, the industry is also now dealing with the consequences of reduced leasing three years ago. Fewer leases three years ago mean that fewer lessees are returning to dealers to buy or lease a new vehicle today. The volume of leases expiring decreased 7.5% in July from June, following a 14.4% drop in June from May. With fewer lease customers returning to market, there are fewer opportunities for new lease sales.”