Black Book, in collaboration with Fitch Ratings, unveiled the 2024 Vehicle Depreciation Report, titled “Shifting Gears: A Comprehensive Overview of Automotive Trends in 2023.” This detailed report presents key developments and data from the U.S. new and used vehicle markets, highlighting notable trends in depreciation, sales, and fleet performance.

U.S. New Vehicle Market Insights:

• Sales Growth: The U.S. new-vehicle market saw robust growth in 2023, with sales surpassing 15.4 million units—up 10% from 2022.
• Increased Leasing: Leasing experienced a resurgence driven by incentives and EV sales, though still below pre-pandemic levels.
• EV Market Dynamics: EV sales exceeded one million units, leading to oversupply and impacted used EV values, notably affecting Tesla’s market share.
• Inflated MSRPs and Incentives: Average new car incentives reached 4.6% of MSRP, a modest rise but still far from historic highs.

Used Vehicle Market Trends:

• Depreciation Rates: The used vehicle market experienced a 20.4% depreciation rate, with EVs seeing deeper declines at roughly 30%.
• Auction Performance: Although auction conversion rates dipped to 50%, sales performance improved toward the year’s end.
• Inventory and Sales: Inventory levels rebounded from 2021 lows, and franchised dealers regained market share.

Market Performance and Projections:

• Depreciation: The market confronted significant depreciation in the latter half of 2023, with projections indicating a -18% depreciation rate for 2024.
• High Depreciation Continues: Seasonal patterns saw notable declines, highlighted by a record single-week depreciation of -1.86% in late October.
• ABS Performance and Outlook: Predicting a return to traditional seasonal behaviors with varied incentives across different OEMs.
• MSRP Reductions: Significant price cuts in new BEVs, particularly by Tesla, affected used BEV market values.
• Remarketing Strategies: The mismanagement of off-lease BEVs and rental returns led to sharp depreciation.