Forecast: Rise in New-Vehicle Sales

By Staff Writer May 27, 2024 409

Total new-vehicle sales for May 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,446,800 units, a 2.9% increase from May 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData released May 23. May 2024 has 26 selling days, one more than May 2023. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 7% from a year ago.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.1 million units, up 0.5 million units from May 2023. 

New-vehicle retail sales for May 2024 are expected to increase when compared with May 2023. Retail sales of new vehicles are expected to reach 1,187,000 units, a 4.4% increase on a selling day adjusted basis. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 8.6% from 2023. 

“Expected new-vehicle sales results for May represent a mixed bag of outcomes,” Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “On the positive side, the total sales pace will exceed 16 million units for the first time this year…However, the industry continues to produce more vehicles than are being sold, leading to rising inventories and increasing the likelihood of elevated discounts as the year progresses.”

Retail inventory is projected to finish around 1.8 million units, a 0.6% increase from April 2024 and a 52.7% increase from May 2023. Fleet mix is projected at 18%, down 1.2 percentage points from May 2023 and down 3.4% on a selling-day adjusted volume basis.

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Last modified on Friday, 31 May 2024 10:17