Total new-vehicle sales for January 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,087,900 units, a 1.5% decrease from January 2023, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. January 2024 has 25 selling days, one more than January 2023. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 2.7% from a year ago.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.2 million units, flat from January 2023. 

New-vehicle retail sales for January 2024 are expected to decrease when compared with January 2023. Retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 862,400 units, a 1.8% decrease from January 2023. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 2.3% from 2023. 

 “After December 2023 reached the strongest sales pace in several years, January’s pace has slowed to 15.2 million units,” Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “December's SAAR of 16.2 million was inflated by elevated discounts from manufacturers, particularly as they aimed to clear out remaining inventory of 2023 model-year vehicles. In addition, changes in the eligibility of many electric vehicles to qualify for government rebates, which took effect Jan. 1, meant many EV purchases that would have occurred in January were made in December.”

Retail inventory levels in January are expected to finish around 1.6 million units, a 3.3% increase from December 2023 and 38.1% increase compared with January 2023. Fleet mix is projected at 20.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from January 2023.