I’m not good at prognosticating these days so my forecasts would be as useful as the Farmers’ Almanac. Used to be I could share time with some of the brightest minds in the industry; our own economist, Tom Kontos brought clarity to our crystal ball meetings, underwriting our approaches to budgeting as well as bringing meaningful content to customer meetings and advisory boards.

We shared time with the “suits” at the manufacturers and other major car-related entities. Whilst not being experts in every facet of vehicle selling and distribution, such associations gave us confidence to make decisions for ourselves and others.

J.D. Power used to hold private dinners at major conventions like the NADA, which included domestic and overseas manufacturers’ leaders. He recognized the importance of the fluidity of the used car market and included us in many of his coveted invitations.

Of course, access to almost any industry data, in any of its myriad forms, is available at our fingertips today but it feels arm’s length. It’s not the same as discussing the rationale that arrives at the numbers with the boss of BMW or Ford, bolstered by personal opinions (some of which were far-fetched). I remember an evening with J.D. at dinner on the patio of a fabulous restaurant in New Orleans with many industry icons. The evening started out precariously as company leaders decided how comfortable they were in the relaxed presence of their peers. It was the first time I’d met Sergio Marchionne, before he took over the Fiat Chrysler Group and he turned out to be the life and soul of the party. There were gentle jibes about market shares and customer retention rates but as the evening became more ‘lubricated’ everyone lightened up and enjoyed the occasion to relax. 

Mike Dale, an archetypal Brit and head of Jaguar Cars North America, rubbed shoulders with Eberhard von Kuenheim, Chairman of BMW. I know it sounds like name-dropping but it was special to witness such an auspicious group in the industry.

ADT Automotive has now been sold for five years longer than the company was in existence and the industry has changed enormously at every level. But forecasting was as important then as it is now. The company was first to publish a Used Car Market Report, segmenting performances of various parts of the industry from Total Industry Volumes to Rental Car Registrations and even regional product preferences. Tom Kontos was the fulcrum for the production of the numbers and the publication became a sought-after volume for most car related offices.

It’s nice to see that Jonathan Smoke now continues those undertakings for Manheim.

Referring to my last article about EVs and their market acceptance (I know, I know, it’s a long-term inevitability) but the marketplace will be roiled for a good few years to be able focus on forecast numbers with any sense of surety. 

I know I don’t always go with the flow. I just bought a Jaguar F Type R75 Dynamic. There are lots of electric gizmos but the engine ain’t one of them! And of course, it’s yellow!