The ZeroSum State of the Dealer Report reviewed December’s year-end data and saw strong month-over-month vehicle movement growth for new, used, and certified vehicles, but this was attributable to end-of-year support and model year changeovers rather than a shift in the overall selling environment. January 2024 forecasts show a pullback from December levels (1.12 million), with a projection of 1.08 million new cars moved. This projection is higher than what the industry saw for most of 2023, but still is not keeping pace with rapidly growing new vehicle inventory (which was up 6% in December after growth of 8% in November and 11% in October).

“December was a strong month in terms of dealers moving vehicles, but the effects of consumers seeking year-end deals related to model year changeovers are expected to diminish,” said Jeff Englishmen, Vice President of Dealer Success at ZeroSum.

Used car prices are down for the seventh month, and prices have fallen 12.6% since 2022. Used vehicles also saw an uptick in vehicle movement in December. However, as with the new car market, December 2023 car performance does not indicate a new trend as we head into 2024.

“Pricing pressure and longer sales cycles for used vehicles continue to play out. The higher supply and steady demand for new vehicles will result in consumers being able to take advantage of incentives and lower negotiated prices, which will ultimately affect the attractiveness of used vehicles,” Englishmen said.