With a record-high average vehicle age in the U.S., the aftermarket is likely to see robust growth in repair and maintenance work, as older cars will see even more miles driven than traditionally expected, according to analysis by S&P Global Mobility.

Aging cars have already expanded the repair business sweet spot, which S&P Global Mobility considers as 6- to 11-year-old vehicles. Now 12- and 13-year-old vehicles are becoming a bigger part of the business - even though they were originally sold during the slow-sales years of the Great Recession.

Growth in vehicle age won’t be uniform. While the share of 7-year-old vehicles in operation is expected to decline through 2028, vehicles more than eight years old will swell in number, said Todd Campau, associate director for aftermarket solutions for S&P Global Mobility. That age group is expected to grow by more than 25 million units by 2028, according to S&P Global Mobility projections.

“As vehicles with more electronic sophistication continue to age and increase in overall share, the aftermarket’s role in maintaining the aging vehicle fleet will become increasingly critical,” Campau said. “That’s where the real opportunity is in the aftermarket space.”

All of this suggests that a growing used-vehicle fleet will continue to benefit the aftermarket business. But while aftermarket repair shops should see more business coming in the door, they face new challenges.

The vehicles in their service bays will be increasingly loaded with sensors for infotainment, communications, and advanced driver assistance systems like adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning and collision avoidance. Adaptive cruise, in particular, has been on a steady upward penetration trend since 2015; it is projected to be in nearly 70 percent of model-year 2023 vehicles, according to S&P Global Mobility estimates.

“I think sensors are where the next big opportunity is for the aftermarket,” Campau said. Likewise, as 5G connectivity becomes dominant in new vehicles, a growing share of vehicles in operation will be capable of receiving over-the-air (OTA) software updates. By 2028, S&P Global Mobility projects, more than one-third of vehicles in operation will be connected, with more than 95 percent of those OTA-ready.