Cox Automotive Forecasts New Vehicle Sales

By Staff Writer May 26, 2023 885

New-vehicle sales when announced next week by many automakers are expected to show sizeable gains over last year, but a decline versus last month. The seasonally adjusted sales pace, or SAAR, is expected to finish near 14.9 million in May, a notable drop from April’s surprisingly strong 15.9 million level. Affordability issues, driven in part by high interest rates and elevated new-vehicle prices, continue to weigh negatively on sales, as typical monthly payments for new-vehicle loans are well above $700 in today’s market. 

Compared to a year ago, the forecast for May reveals a significantly changed market. Sales volume is forecast to jump more than 20% year-over-year, thanks to far better inventory levels. A year ago, according to an analysis of vAuto Available Inventory data, total new-vehicle inventory at retail outlets across the U.S. stood at approximately 1.1 million units. This year, heading into the month of May, inventory was at a two-year high and above 1.9 million units, an increase of nearly 70%. Tight inventory was the key driver of lower sales in 2022. This year, as inventory builds for many brands, demand, not supply, is becoming the market driver.

“New-vehicle sales will show strong gains this month over last year’s levels, and on the surface, this is a bit surprising,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “Interest rates are substantially higher than a year ago, as are vehicle prices, and yet sales will increase year-over-year. The reason? Vehicle shoppers now have a much better chance of finding something that fits their needs. Pent-up demand, held back by limited product availability last year, is now being fulfilled as inventory levels improve around the country.” 

 

 

Sales Forecast1

Market Share1

Segment

May-23

May-22

Apr-23

YOY%

MOM%

May-23

Apr-23

MOM

Mid-Size Car

85,000

73,759

85,994

15.2 %

-1.2 %

6.3 %

6.3 %

0.0 %

Compact Car

85,000

67,370

86,656

26.2 %

-1.9 %

6.3 %

6.3 %

-0.1 %

Compact SUV/Crossover

210,000

154,862

211,508

35.6 %

-0.7 %

15.6 %

15.5 %

0.1 %

Full-Size Pickup Truck

190,000

162,044

195,081

17.3 %

-2.6 %

14.1 %

14.3 %

-0.2 %

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

235,000

205,870

240,134

14.1 %

-2.1 %

17.4 %

17.6 %

-0.2 %

Grand Total2

1,350,000

1,121,835

1,365,080

20.3 %

-1.1 %

   

 

Cox Automotive Industry Insights data.   2 Total includes segments not shown

 

 

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Last modified on Thursday, 08 June 2023 10:09