New-vehicle sales when announced next week by many automakers are expected to show sizeable gains over last year, but a decline versus last month. The seasonally adjusted sales pace, or SAAR, is expected to finish near 14.9 million in May, a notable drop from April’s surprisingly strong 15.9 million level. Affordability issues, driven in part by high interest rates and elevated new-vehicle prices, continue to weigh negatively on sales, as typical monthly payments for new-vehicle loans are well above $700 in today’s market. 

Compared to a year ago, the forecast for May reveals a significantly changed market. Sales volume is forecast to jump more than 20% year-over-year, thanks to far better inventory levels. A year ago, according to an analysis of vAuto Available Inventory data, total new-vehicle inventory at retail outlets across the U.S. stood at approximately 1.1 million units. This year, heading into the month of May, inventory was at a two-year high and above 1.9 million units, an increase of nearly 70%. Tight inventory was the key driver of lower sales in 2022. This year, as inventory builds for many brands, demand, not supply, is becoming the market driver.

“New-vehicle sales will show strong gains this month over last year’s levels, and on the surface, this is a bit surprising,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “Interest rates are substantially higher than a year ago, as are vehicle prices, and yet sales will increase year-over-year. The reason? Vehicle shoppers now have a much better chance of finding something that fits their needs. Pent-up demand, held back by limited product availability last year, is now being fulfilled as inventory levels improve around the country.” 

¹ Cox Automotive Industry Insights data.   ² Total includes segments not shown