S&P Global Mobility projects new light-vehicle sales volume in May 2023 to reach 1.31 million units, up 18% year over year, and representing the 10th consecutive month in which volume has improved from the year-prior level. This volume would translate to an estimated sales pace of 14.5 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), a step down from the month-prior result, but reminiscent of ongoing monthly patterns in this metric.

On the supply side of the equation, supply chain issues have continued the easing that began in the second half of 2022, resulting in consistent increases in retail advertised inventory levels. As the summer months approach, vehicle listings have plateaued at approximately 2 million units, 67% higher than a year ago, according to S&P Global Mobility’s proprietary analysis of advertised dealer inventory.  

“Auto sales in May are expected to reflect the ongoing market conditions running in opposition of each other; improving inventory, but uncertain consumers,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “Potential upside to immediate term sales remains as inventory levels progress. However, gathering economic headwinds point to some volatility come the second half of the year.”

Sales volumes over the next several months are not expected to dynamically change from the current trend, according to the analysis. That said, consumer choice buoyed by increased inventory and sustained downward pricing pressure could be restrained by affordability challenges by way of macroeconomic uncertainty, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions.