Although U.S. electric vehicle registrations remain dominated by Tesla, the brand is showing the expected signs of shedding market share as more entrants arrive. Much of Tesla’s share loss is to EVs available in a more accessible MSRP range – below $50,000, where Tesla does not yet truly compete.

Regardless of brand or price point, early S&P Global Mobility figures suggest consumers moving to electric vehicles in 2022 are largely doing so from Toyota and Honda – brands which have been unable to keep their internal combustion owners loyal until their own brands begin to participate more significantly in the EV transition.

While both Japanese companies built a U.S. legacy with strong fuel economy and powertrain technologies – including electrification through hybrids, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell electric vehicles – both have been caught flat-footed in the context of 2022. S&P Global Mobility conquest data for Tesla’s Model 3 and Y, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai Ioniq5, and Chevrolet Bolt show strong captures of buyers from the two leading Japanese brands.

So far, most EVs continue to be acquired for higher MSRPs and by buyers with higher incomes than the demographic profile for total light vehicle registrations--in part because most EVs are Teslas.

Of more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022, nearly 340,000 were Teslas. The remaining volume is divided, very unevenly, among 46 other nameplates. However, the trends may change as the number of EV buyers becomes more robust.

Tesla’s position is changing as new, more affordable options arrive, offering equal or better technology and production build. Given that consumer choice and consumer interest in EVs are growing, Tesla’s ability to retain a dominant market share will be challenged going forward.

S&P Global Mobility predicts the number of battery-electric nameplates will grow from 48 at present to 159 by the end of 2025, at a pace faster than Tesla will be able to add factories. Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk confirmed (again) during a recent earnings call that the company is working on a vehicle priced lower than the Model 3, though market launch timing is unclear.