With volume for the month projected at 1.122 million units, November U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an estimated sales pace of 14.1 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR). This would represent a sustained improvement from the May through September period but will reflect a decline from October’s 14.9 million-unit pace, according to S&P Global Mobility analysis.

The daily selling rate metric in November (approximately 44-45K per day) would be in-line with levels since September. Translation: From a non-seasonally adjusted volume standpoint, auto sales continue to plug along at a steady pace. 

“Sales should continue to improve, given the expected sustained, but mild, advancement in overall production and inventory levels,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “However, we also continue to monitor for signals of faster-than-expected growth in inventory. Currently, there are no clear signs; inventories have advanced as anticipated. But any indication of faster than projected growth in the overall stock of new vehicles could mean that auto consumers are feeling the pressure of the current economic headwinds and retreating from the market.”

As a result, October’s SAAR boost is likely to be an anomaly compared to the remainder of the year, Hopson said, adding that there are expectations of volatility in the monthly results starting in early 2023.

Market share of battery-electric vehicles is expected to reach 5.9% in November. However, outside of the large coastal cities, retail registrations of EVs have yet to take hold, according to analysis from S&P Global Mobility.