Cox: Used Prices Increase

By Staff Writer May 19, 2022

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 0.7% in the first 15 days of May compared to the full month of April. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 222.7, which was up 9.7% from May 2021. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of May was an increase of 1.0% compared to April, leaving the unadjusted average price up 12.1% year over year.

Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices saw decreasing, but positive, gains over the first two full weeks of May. The Three-Year-Old MMR Index, which represents the largest model-year cohort at auction, experienced a 0.3% cumulative increase over the last two weeks. Over the first 15 days of May, MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 98.7%, which indicates that valuation models are slightly ahead of market prices. The average daily sales conversion rate of 57.8% in the first half of May was flat relative to April’s daily average of 57.9% and has been slightly lower than the typical conversion rate this time of year. The latest trends in the key indicators suggest wholesale used-vehicle values may see increases in the second half of the month. 

Most major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were higher year over year in the first half of May. Pickups were the exception, with a 2.8% decline year over year. Vans had the largest increase at 27.0%, and both non-luxury car segments outpaced the overall industry in seasonally adjusted year-over-year gains. Compared to April, major segment performance was mixed, with half seeing seasonally adjusted price increases, while other segments saw declines and full-size cars declined the most. The seasonal adjustment drove the declines, as all major market segments saw gains from April, with vans increasing the most and pickups increasing the least.

Using estimates based on vAuto data as of May 15, used retail days’ supply was 49 days, which was down three days from the end of April. Days’ supply was up 12 days year over year. Leveraging Manheim sales and inventory data Cox estimates that wholesale supply ended April at 25 days, flat from the end of March but up seven days year over year. As of May 15, wholesale supply was at 24 days, down one day from the end of April but up six days year over year. 

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Last modified on Monday, 23 May 2022 14:51