Cox: Used Sales Fall in July

By Staff Writer August 10, 2021

According to Cox Automotive estimates, total used vehicle sales were down 15% year-over-year in July. Cox estimates the July used SAAR to be 38.5 million, down from 44.8 million last July and down compared to June’s 39 million SAAR. The July used retail SAAR estimate is 21.5 million, down from 23.7 million last year and up month-over-month from June’s 21.3 million retail SAAR.

Using a rolling seven-day estimate of used retail days’ supply based on vAuto data, Cox sees that used retail supply peaked at 114 days on April 8, 2020. Normal used retail supply is about 44 days’ supply. It ended July at 39 days, which is below normal levels.

“We estimate that wholesale supply peaked at 149 days on April 9, 2020, when normal supply is 23. It ended July at 21 days,” Cox reported.

July total new-vehicle sales were up 4% year-over-year, with one more selling day compared to July 2020. The July SAAR came in at 14.8 million, an increase from last year’s 14.7 million but down from July 2019’s 17 million rate.

Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government buyers were up 11% year-over-year in July. Sales into rental increased 248% year-over-year in July and are up 3% compared to the same time period last year. Commercial sales are down 11% year-over-year and are up 20% in 2021. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into the dealer and manufacturer channel, Cox estimates that the remaining retail sales were up 5% year-over-year in July, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 13.1 million, up from 13.0 million last July and down from July 2019’s 14.4 million rate.

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
(July 2021)

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Last modified on Monday, 16 August 2021 12:28