TrueCar Inc. forecasts total new-vehicle sales will reach 1,287,536 units in June 2021, up 16% from a year ago but down 16% vs. May 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.2 million, bouncing back from 13.0 million SAAR in June 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,133,299 units, an increase of 11% from a year ago and decrease of 17% from May 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“We have been closely watching declining levels of new car inventory since the beginning of the year, but until recently sales have remained strong due to overwhelming demand. We still expect June to show strong gains compared to a year ago, but we are seeing some softening compared to prior months,” said Nick Woolard, lead industry analyst at TrueCar. “In addition to lower inventory, we continue to see a sharp downward trend in incentives and a corresponding increase in transaction prices which could sway some shoppers to remain on the fence this month.”

The chip shortage is one of the big problems as automakers prioritize what vehicles to build sand where to send them.

“Looking at the second quarter compared to first quarter, we see large shifts in market share with the biggest benefactors being Honda, Hyundai and Kia,” said Valeri Tompkins, senior vice president of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. “Not all brands have been impacted equally, but the common denominator is that everyone wishes they had more vehicles to sell.”