Edmunds: Q3 ‘Positive Turning Point’

By Staff Writer September 29, 2020 252

Experts at Edmunds state the third quarter represents a positive turning point for the automotive industry despite challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. Edmunds analysts forecast that 3,850,707 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S., which reflects an 11 percent decrease from the third quarter of 2019 but a 30.6 percent increase compared to the second quarter of the year.

“Third-quarter sales make at least two things apparent: Most of the doomsday scenarios forecasted at the beginning of the pandemic fortunately did not hold true, and the American consumer stepped up to become one of the many heroes in this chapter of resilience for the automotive industry, “ said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of insights. “Consistently lower interest rates encouraged new-car buyers — who were less likely to be financially hindered by the economic fallout of the pandemic — to pull the trigger on a purchase. Rising used vehicle prices also likely made the new car market more appealing for shoppers on the fence between the two. And car owners also got to leverage the extra value that trade-ins are commanding during COVID-19 to offset the cost of their next purchase.”

Although retail sales have shown positive growth, Edmunds experts note that fleet sales continue to struggle during the pandemic. Edmunds estimates that fleet transactions will account for 10.8 percent of total sales for the third quarter, compared to 17.2 percent in the third quarter of 2019 and 13.2 percent last quarter.

“The last piece of the puzzle for the industry’s recovery is fleet sales,” said Caldwell. “Daily rental companies have understandably reduced or delayed orders as Americans continue to stay at home rather than embark upon business or air travel. It will likely take a bit longer for this side of the business to make as dramatic a comeback as its retail counterparts.” 

QUARTERLY SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

SALES
VOLUME

2020 Q3
Forecast

Q3 2019
Sales

Q2 2020
Sales

Change from
Q3 2019

Change from
Q2 2020

GM

634,261

738,638

492,489

-14.1 percent

28.8 percent

Toyota

549,567

627,194

398,029

-12.4 percent

38.1 percent

Ford

534,290

580,251

433,869

-7.9 percent

23.1 percent

FCA

513,872

565,034

367,086

-9.1 percent

40.0 percent

Honda

394,229

429,214

293,502

-8.2 percent

34.3 percent

Hyundai/Kia

337,533

334,834

270,699

0.8 percent

24.7 percent

Nissan

220,645

327,354

177,328

-32.6 percent

24.4 percent

VW/Audi

132,550

150,578

101,605

-12.0 percent

30.5 percent

Industry

3,850,707

4,326,243

2,948,126

-11.0 percent

30.6 percent

QUARTERLY MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share

2020 Q3
Forecast

Q3 2019
Sales

Q2 2020
Sales

Change from
Q3 2019

Change from
Q2 2020

GM

16.5 percent

17.1 percent

16.7 percent

-3.5 percent

-1.4 percent

Toyota

14.3 percent

14.5 percent

13.5 percent

-1.6 percent

5.7 percent

Ford

13.9 percent

13.4 percent

14.7 percent

3.5 percent

-5.7 percent

FCA

13.3 percent

13.1 percent

12.5 percent

2.2 percent

7.2 percent

Honda

10.2 percent

9.9 percent

10.0 percent

3.2 percent

2.8 percent

Hyundai/Kia

8.8 percent

7.7 percent

9.2 percent

13.3 percent

-4.5 percent

Nissan

5.7 percent

7.6 percent

6.0 percent

-24.3 percent

-4.7 percent

VW/Audi

3.4 percent

3.5 percent

3.4 percent

-1.1 percent

-0.1 percent

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Last modified on Friday, 02 October 2020 14:15