The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 1.4 points to 90.8 (1985=100) in July, down from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – fell by 3.6 points to 114.9, its third consecutive monthly decline. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – remained unchanged at 74.7. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was July 1–22, encompassing ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” said Dana M Peterson, chief economist, The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index was less positive for a third consecutive month while the Expectations Index remained in negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, perceptions of the current labor market both softened. Looking ahead, consumers anticipate little improvement in business conditions over the next six months, but expectations for the labor market were slightly less negative. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”
The Present Situation Index declined in July. Net views of current business conditions – the share saying conditions are “good” versus “bad” – fell by 2.6 ppt to +1.1%, barely holding onto positive territory. Perceptions of current employment conditions also declined, with the labor market differential – the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get” – dipping by 0.7 ppts to +3.1%. This downshift was driven by fewer consumers reporting that jobs are “plentiful”, while the those saying jobs are “hard to get” dipped slightly over the month.
