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Wednesday, 10 January 2018 00:50

Black Book Offers New Valuations


Black Book has debuted VIN-specific history-adjusted valuations, an analytics-driven process for determining the impact a vehicle’s history has on its value.These valuations analyze multiple factors and events in a vehicle’s history such as number of owners, vehicle usage, accident and accident severity, title issues, flood/hail/fire damage, certified pre-owned history, and other variables that are not obvious when physically inspecting a vehicle.Black Book says that history-adjusted values are 31 percent more precise on average when compared to the auction transaction price than valuations without a history adjustment included.
Published in Dealers
Black Book saw its Used Vehicle Retention Index fall in December to 114.1 from 115, its first decline since August. The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published wholesale average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The index offers an accurate, unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values.After rising for three straight months, the index fell largely due to higher depreciation recorded for both car and truck segments. December saw higher depreciation on a mix of both car and truck segments, led by full-size luxury CUV/SUV (2 percent); mid-size luxury CUV/SUV (1.9 percent); full-size cars (1.7 percent); compact crossovers (1.7 percent) and compact cars (1.4 percent).
Published in Dealers
Wednesday, 06 December 2017 01:05

Black Book Sees Wholesale Prices Rise Again

Black Book released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for November, reporting an increase to 115 from 114.6, its third straight monthly increase dating back to August when it was at 112.6. The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published wholesale average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition.  The Index has increased in five months during 2017, with a sixth month unchanged (June – July). Nine segments saw increases in the Index during November: compact crossover/SUV, full-size car, full-size pickups, full-size vans, luxury cars, mid-size crossover/SUV, mid-size luxury crossover/SUV, prestige luxury cars, and small pickups.
Published in Auctions
Tuesday, 05 December 2017 00:20

Black Book Provide Valuations to Website

Black Book has signed a partnership agreement with Carable. Black Book is providing all vehicle valuations for sellers listing their vehicles in the online marketplace.Carable launched in the Dallas- and Houston-area used car markets earlier this year as part of the U.S. launch. The company’s platform connects people who want to buy and sell used cars online.
Published in Tech News
Monday, 06 November 2017 18:09

Used Vehicle Retention Rises

Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index for October increased to 114.6 from 113.9, its second straight monthly increase dating back to August when it was at 112.6.  The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published wholesale average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The last remaining expected replacement activity stemming from hurricanes Harvey and Irma drove continued vehicle valuation stability and shopping demand during the month of October.
Published in Dealers
Thursday, 02 November 2017 18:58

Black Book Debuts Scenario-Based Data

Black Book has released new Economic Scenario-Based Residuals, available to lenders and financial institutions with a portfolio of auto loans. Black Book has mapped regulatory prescribed scenarios for this new suite of residual data, enabling risk and portfolio managers the ability to analyze how vehicle values will respond under different macroeconomic Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) scenarios as outlined by the Federal Reserve.Black Book has historically made available to auto lenders its projected wholesale residual values of vehicles under baseline and various scenarios. These models were built with extensive analysis of historical sales data taking into account impact from macro-economic variables, fuel prices, vehicle incentives, supply and demand in the used and new markets, and other criteria.Complying with the CCAR/DFAST requirements within existing quantitative models and a model risk management framework is one of the most daunting of the many recent challenges for financial institutions. These lenders have completed extensive work in predicting loss probability using a credit scoring model. However, a key component of loss in auto loans is the severity of loss, which is driven by the ability to predict residual values. Leveraging this new suite of collateral data with economic scenarios at a vehicle level will greatly enhance a lender’s ability to properly assess risk, and aid in evaluating capital adequacy.In addition to providing stress testing under CCAR/DFAST-driven scenarios including Baseline, Adverse and Severly Adverse, Black Book will also provide residual projections for custom scenarios such as a High Gas Price scenario.
Published in Dealers
Wednesday, 04 October 2017 21:06

Black Book’s Index Makes Large Gain

Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index rose to 113.9 in September from 112.6 in August.This is the largest month-over-month gain since March 2012. The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. The Index offers an accurate, unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values.Hurricane Harvey caused major flooding throughout parts of Texas, resulting in an estimated 500,000 cars and trucks needing to be replaced. The replacement process began in September, with compact cars (2.8 percent), compact crossover SUVs (2.4 percent), full-size cars (2.5 percent), and midsize cars (2.3 percent) each seeing significant month-over-month increases within the Index.
Published in Dealers
Wednesday, 13 September 2017 15:22

Black Book Sees Wholesale Prices Slip

Black Book saw its Used Vehicle Retention Index dip slightly in August.The Index fell to 112.6 in August from 113 in July. The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically equipped MSRP. The Index has now declined 3.9 percent year-over-year. Compact cars, near-luxury cars, and subcompact cars each saw slight gains during August, despite the Index overall seeing a slight drop. It is expected that trucks and pickups and even smaller cars may see gains in the near term as dealers and individuals look to replace damage or destroyed vehicles from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
Published in Dealers
Friday, 04 August 2017 18:42

Consumers Want More for Their Trades

Black Book recently released a white paper titled: “Trade Appraisal: How to narrow the gap to close more deals.”The white paper sheds light on the disconnect between consumers and many dealers. It also explores what’s at stake when a consumer introduces a trade-in as a part of the transaction. In addition, the paper offers new insight into the role advanced analytics and data now play in valuing a trade, with the ability to narrow the gap between the vehicle’s actual value and the consumer’s expectations for the trade. Results from a recent Black Book survey show that consumers feel a vehicle trade-in quote that’s far from expectations is the second-most likely scenario to kill a possible deal.Many consumers cited specific frustrations with the valuations they often receive from a dealer. More than a third of those polled said their researched quote was $1,001 - $1,500 apart from the dealer’s offer; and another 27 percent said their quote was more than $1,500 apart. Nearly half said they need the dealer’s offer to be between $501 and $1,000 of their research quote for it to be acceptable.
Published in Dealers
Wednesday, 19 July 2017 16:22

Small Pickups Show Lowest Depreciation

The average price of a used vehicle for model years 2012-16 decreased in value 1.3 percent in June, slightly more than the 1.2 percent change in May, Black Book reports. Cars overall dropped 1.8 percent and trucks dropped 0.8 percent in value during June. All vehicles are averaging a 12-month depreciation of 16.7 percent. In June, small pickups had the lowest monthly depreciation at 0.1 percent. Vehicles in this segment finished June with an average price of $21,328. Subcompact cars saw the largest depreciation during the month at 2.8 percent. Vehicles in this segment finished June with an average price of $6,554.
Published in Dealers
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Auctions Across America Fall 2017