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LEGAL UPDATE: Sean Petersen, NIADA senior vice president of legal and governmental affairs, talks about recent legal issues affecting independent dealers.  One change in Nevada regulates the use of starter-interrupt and GPS devices.

Self-Driving Electrics Could Account for Quarter of All Driving

Self-Driving Electrics Could Account for Quarter of All Driving Featured

By 2030, around a quarter of all miles driven in the US could be in shared autonomous electric vehicles, which will offer consumers in large cities the lowest-cost, most convenient form of transportation, according to new research by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
BCG’s key insight is that the convergence of three trends—ride sharing (services such as Uber and Lyft), autonomous driving, and vehicle electrification—create a far more compelling economic case than any of these forces alone. Due to their ability to cut travel costs by 60 percent, shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs) could shift about 25 percent of miles traveled from private automobiles. While total vehicle demand will only be affected slightly, by 2030 more than 5 million conventional cars per year could be replaced by a combination of fully autonomous electric vehicles for urban fleets and partially autonomous cars for personal use.
Unlike most industry studies which look at trends such as autonomous driving and powertrain electrification in isolation, BCG’s research aims to provide an integrated view of the future of mobility in the US. The consultants combine insights from a variety of sources – including a proprietary survey of more than 6,000 US consumers; detailed modeling and analysis of traffic patterns and population density in over 100 cities of varying sizes; economic forecasting; past BCG studies; and interviews with a wide range of industry experts.
Automakers and parts suppliers would face the most profound challenge to their business models in a century. While total vehicle demand isn’t likely to change materially, the types of cars required will be vastly different.
BCG estimates that in 2030, a total of 4.7 million autonomous electric vehicles will replace 5.1 million conventional autos sold in the US. This shift undermines the current industry business model, with its focus on engine technology and its long product cycles, and opens the market to a range of new competitors.
Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of industry assets could turn into liabilities. Dealers will be less relevant as fleets make up a much bigger portion of sales. Current aftermarket businesses will take a hit because SAEVs will require less maintenance and have fewer accidents. But at the same time, whole new businesses will develop to manage large urban fleets and service them daily.

Last modified on Tuesday, 11 April 2017 21:39
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