ALG projects used vehicle sales for June will reach 3,215,742, down 4.2% year-over-year and down 5.8% from May.

The firm expects total new vehicle sales to reach 1,487,407 units in June, down 0.6 from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17 million units for the month and is expected to remain at 17 million SAAR for 2019.

Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,203,565 units, a decrease of 6.3 percent from a year ago.

For the second quarter of 2019, ALG expects new vehicle sales will reach 4,409,295 units, down slightly, at 2%, from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Automaker average incentive spending will reach $3,747, down 1% or $37 year-over-year, and up 0.4% or $16 from May. However, several automakers increased incentive spending year-over-year in June, most notably Honda and Toyota, up 12.3% or $226 and 3.5% or $80 respectively.

Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 3.1% or $1,014 year-over-year.

Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 11%, down 3.9% from a year ago and up 0.6% from May.

Auto finance defaults declined in May.

The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices show auto finance defaults declined to 0.87 percent from 0.94 percent in April. The indices represent a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults.

Overall, the composite rate fell to 0.83 percent in May.

Four of the major metropolitan statistical areas showed lower default rates compared to last month.

Dallas showed the largest decrease. Miami was the only city with an increase.

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Interview with D.Hansen

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