Cox Forecasts 16.9 million SAAR Featured

By Staff Writer November 27, 2019

Cox Automotive sales forecast shows the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) to finish near 16.9 million, up from last month’s strike-impacted 16.5 million level, but down slightly from the current 2019 year-to-date pace near 17 million.

Total sales through October are down 1.4 percent, compared to last year, and this negative trend is expected to continue. Sales volume, supported by an extra selling day, is expected to finish down 0.4 percent compared to November 2018. Sales, however, will be up nearly 4 percent from last month.

One key factor will be incentives, which generally rise at the end of the year as OEMs try to push old inventory to make way for new products. Black Friday and year-end sales promotions have become an important part of the sell-down strategy and are even more important in a downward moving retail market. Another key factor for November’s results will be the recovery of GM sales in the wake of the long strike.

“We believe GM fleet activity, and likely some retail, was significantly lower in October by tens of thousands of units as factory closures disrupted deliveries,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “The question for the market this month is whether these sales were simply delayed, replaced or canceled.”

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Last modified on Thursday, 05 December 2019 18:14

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