Written by
Tony Moorby
on
Thursday, 21 March 2013 14:56
|
 I saw a bumper sticker the other day it said, Abstinence makes the church grow fondlers. I laughed like a drain until I realized the suffering that has been caused over the years. I hope the new Pope, who will probably have been elected by the time this goes to press, brings about some major shifts in policy. Mind you, Im not Roman Catholic; Im with King Henry VIII and the Church of England so, whilst I dont have a dog directly in this fight, I still believe that the Church, in general, needs to reassess its place in todays world. Normally I would say we should have some old cornerstones to rely on; old rules that have served society well but I dont think celibacy has served any such purpose. Suppressing one of the most forceful urges in humanity invites problems. Its a bit like trying to get rid of a bump in a carpet; you push it down and it pops up somewhere else. Maybe its not my place to say but marriage in the priesthood would be a healthy change. Even Chaucer, in The Canterbury Tales, told of the monk keeping pins and presents in his hood to pay for his dalliances. The Vatican City is a place of deep and abiding secrets. Well never know the real reason for Pope Benedicts abdication. Why he should fly in the face of hundreds of years of accepted custom and practice dying in office in spite of frailties being one of them has an odor to it. Switching gears I recently attended the CAR conference in Las Vegas. Whilst a lot of the subject matter stays pretty similar, in that, current systems and practices come under the scrutiny and microscope of the industry, its probably a good thing. Change comes that way. Sometimes change doesnt seem quick enough I worry that our business will come into the purview of others and strip chunks of responsibility away that means revenue streams go with them. Our dexterity and agility will be put to the test and protection of old territories, like hugging a beloved teddy bear, will have to stop. Open platforms will only come with open minds. Expensively cobbling together old technologies to look like new wont stand the tests of the industrys customers. I may be an old dog this is my 47th year in the car business but the prospects of learning all kinds of new tricks still excites me to no end. Mind you, I still believe a car nose is still a worthwhile attachment. Data is available at every level in its myriad these days; its the interpretation thats important. Perhaps thats the subject of another article, in itself. But I was listening to Steve Cortes, the commentator from CNBC, at the conference. As youd expect he was fascinating, insightful and contrarian, putting his obverse slant on a worldview. He has one of the most bullish outlooks on the short and long-term views of Americas performance he gets my vote! He believes that American energy wealth will fuel (pardon the pun) more manufacturing growth, along with Americas natural creative abilities to keep us independently ahead the other global efforts. China, the current darling of most economists, will stumble on its own lack of creativity and demographic deficiencies as a result of the one-child-per-family rule. Our attachment to Middle-Eastern oil is lessening as we speak but China doesnt, as yet, produce much of its own energy. The only frailty in Cortes view, as far as I see it, is that China will make new geo-political alignments with the Middle East and who knows where that will lead. He made no mention of Africa either. Their mineral wealth will assure a place at any future economic table. Housing sales are on the rise and I give no credit whatsoever to the current administration for what is essentially a pent-up demand being satisfied by the banks finally taking their icy grip off the vault doors. Thatll grow employment and demand for materials. Jobs will pay taxes and our debt repayment schedule may be shortened. Lighten up spring is in the air and lots of good things to which to look forward. Even a third of the world will get a new Pope. |
Written by
Tony Moorby
on
Wednesday, 13 March 2013 12:31
|
 Tax money was as slow as molasses on a winters day this year. I guess that was thanks to last-minute tax code adjustments at the end of last year and the IRS trying to catch up. So business planning was rendered all but useless for those who depend on a momentary up-tick in their markets and its no small thing cash in the early part of the year can often dictate the pace for the rest of the year. Even Wal-Mart has felt the draft. I know dealers who did what they were supposed to do last October and November and stocked up on cheaper cars to sell at decent profits in January and February. Wholesale floor plan financing was available, so it all made sense. But, just like a perfect storm, it didnt happen like that. Customers were paying for Christmas, the rent, the mortgage or stashing some for a rainy day if no credit card debt was to be paid off so no retail traffic. The floor plan pay-offs for cars bought last year were now due or curtailments were coming up to extend them and because fewer trades were made at the start of the year, inventory was tough to get from the new car stores to replenish what few had slipped over the curb. That was how the folks in D.C. dealt with the fiscal cliff leave people and businesses dangling. Next we have sequestration. What is sequestration? Its a series of automatic, across-the-board cuts to government agencies, in this case totaling $1.2 trillion over 10 years a mere bagatelle compared to the excess of $16 trillion we have in our national debt right now. The cuts would be split half and half between defense and domestic discretionary spending. Ironically, the people most affected would be in areas where the government has a big influence or hires a lot of people. Obviously those close to the seat of power, say Maryland and Northern Virginia as well as those in D.C. itself, would feel the pinch, creating some self-imposed pressure to find jobs. That may be a good thing in the long run. But some less obvious casualties may be affected New Mexico comes to mind or Colorado, both having close attachments to defense establishments and government-funded infrastructure. It seems that the dole queues will be expensively extended did they figure the unemployment payments into their math? To sequester means to hide away, remove or shield as well as to take out. At least they got the name right. Theyll take away the spending with one hand and give a lot of it back with the other and bury the consequences in the next governments backyard. One thing that President Obama has learned well since taking office the first time around is the power of oratory. He could say very little at first without the aid of a teleprompter, but now he can convincingly speak of moving money from the rich to the middle classes in a more socialist society. If youre in any doubt about his convictions here I suggest you rent the movie 2016 very insightful. His next learning curve should be mathematics. There appears to be some deficiency in adding and taking away. Im going to indulge in my own sequestration this week. Its off to Las Vegas again to hide away in the bowels of Caesars Palace at the Conference of Automotive Remarketing, the confluence of folks from the NAAA, IARA and Bobit Business Media. I hope we get good economic news for the rest of the year and trade ideas on how to get the most out of what weve got. Maybe I should see a magic show and learn how to pull a rabbit out of a hat or sit at the tables and find an ace up my sleeve! I think not. But for once in a long time, Im kind of in the mood for Vegas. The odds may be better there than in the used-car business. |
|
Written by
Tony Moorby
on
Thursday, 14 February 2013 14:37
|
 Ill miss the NADA convention this year. Mores the pity I always get a sense of how the industry feels about itself whenever Ive been before. Its like a barometer for the rest of the year. Pundits are pointing to a 15.8 million vehicle market this year and that would be a healthy climb on the way back to normalcy. Leasing insiders are anticipating their share within that growth, maybe even spurring some of it. Old portfolios will be sloughing off another half a million used vehicles into the wholesale marketplace. And the construction industry is showing signs of feeding a pent-up demand in spite of the political environment in which it finds itself, boding well for truck sales to get back on track. Itll be interesting to see how the bankers find ways and mechanisms to fund this potential growth before the regulators breathe fire and brimstone over the lenders shoulders and snuff out this consumer flame. The regulators cant even get their own house in order. Weve been left teetering on the edge of the fiscal cliff while debt and unfettered borrowing by the government continue to erode the rock face underneath and President Obama wants no oversight or restriction on our debt ceiling. Im no expert on the legal side of the Constitution, but Im sure that he cant spend any further and cast the requirements of congressional oversight, willy-nilly to the wind. We should say No to the growing socialist dependencies on public services and the public purse. A swift look at Europe, France and Great Britain in particular, to see the effects of hand-outs to a growing population who are more aware of welfare loopholes than the people who wrote the rules in the first place. Lets get back to cars. Looking at NADAs convention website will confirm how large and complex the business has become and continues to be. Suppliers have changed from the likes of window sticker holder makers to designers of apps for contacting customers on special deals as they drive by the dealership on their cell phones. Its not just a case of demographic knowledge of your customer any more we know where you are as well as who you are. Its cool and exciting stuff and the very nature of retailing is changing before our eyes. The question is, Is everyone comfortable with Google being the omnipresent eye in the sky? They might even know Im writing this about them! Seriously, customer contact has taken on the semblance of an art form and some serious money is being thrown at these enabling technologies. Thats not to say that some fun stuff is off the table but the appetite to look like youre throwing money around like a drunken sailor to entertain your customers isnt quite what it used to be. Such largesse is to be frowned upon these days. Shame about that! Celebrating success is something Id like to see us get back to sooner rather than later. As the NADA convention is one of the earliest in the year, the Consumer Electronics Show being the first major one, we hope an air of optimism is established right away. They have a new president in Peter Welch who. universally seems to be well accepted as a seasoned veteran of the California New Car Dealers Association and can exert his influences on a now-broadened basis. His history includes a long stint overseeing regulatory affairs in the toughest state in the nation for such matters as related to the car business. Hes coming into this job on a rising tide, with new opportunities abounding, including giving NADA an even greater stentorian voice in Washington. Orlandos not the worst place to be at this time of year if you can fight your way through the traffic. And once youre on the convention floor there are plenty of new models and products to indulge any imagination. The half-clad girly ones are a rarity nowadays another testament to our changing sensibilities. So its a shame I wont be getting my exercises this year walking around the miles of Expo floor during the day or lifting my elbow in the evenings. |
|
|
|
|
Page 2 of 11
|